A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
